All week I've been reading the same sentiment from multiple news sources, including CNN and Andy Tanenbaum's electoral-vote website:
If McCain wins Florida he cements his status as GOP front runner. If Romney wins, then it's anybody's game.
Last time I checked, Romney had more delegates than McCain -- 73 to 38. With Florida's 27 electoral votes up for grabs, a McCain win would still put him behind Romney in the delegate count.
(That's assuming all 27 get counted, but at this point the Republican National Committee is punishing Florida for staging their primary too early by penalizing them half of their delegate count. That may change come convention-time though...)
If Romney wins, he'd have at least double McCain's count.
So how does that translate to McCain being a clear front runner if he wins? This doesn't make sense, but that's probably because the media is involved and they seem to prefer McCain...
Don't be stampeded into your vote. As the Knight Templar said in the third Indiana Jones movie, "Choose wisely."
Comments
Actually, Rudy, the Florida Republican primary had 114 delegates of which half were stripped by the RNC as punishment for Florida holding its primary before February 5.
The McCain win puts him ahead in the delegate count, 97 to 74 (according to electoral-vote.com and CNN). With polls in most of the Super Tuesday states showing McCain ahead, that certainly qualifies as "front runner" status.
Still, as you mentioned, had Romney won he would be ahead 131 to 40. With a week to go and lots of money at his disposal, I can't see how you couldn't have called Romney the front runner in that scenario.
On the Democratic side, no Florida delegates for Clinton (yet) but the win will surely resonate with all the stampede voters out there. I foresee a grueling battle ahead going into the Democratic convention with no clear winner. At that point, who knows what will happen? Hillary? Obama? Edwards? Al Gore? Howard Dean...?